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高温热害已成为制约矿山安全与高效生产的重要因素。为揭示深部原岩温度分布规律,基于某金属矿山实测数据,开展了灰色预测和岭回归研究。研究表明,原岩温度与埋深具有良好的线性相关性,地温梯度约为17℃~/km;-630 m中段原岩温度随孔深呈非线性单调上升特征,巷道调热圈半径约为18 m。不同中段埋深与孔深的岩温灰色预测模型结果显示,残差普遍小于0.63,相对误差控制在3%以内,后验差c值均小于0.35,小误差概率p值为1,预测精度达到优(I)级。岭回归结果显示,不同埋深及孔深范围内与实测值保持高度一致,仅在浅部出现轻微偏差,尤其在中深部区间几乎与实测曲线重合。该研究成果可为深部原岩温度分布规律研究及高温灾害治理提供数据支撑。
Abstract：High-temperature hazards have become a major constraint on mine safety and efficient production. To reveal the distribution characteristics of deep rock temperature, measured data from a metal mine were analyzed using grey prediction modeling and ridge regression. The results show a strong linear correlation between rock temperature and burial depth, with a geothermal gradient of about 17 ℃ ~/km. At the-630 m level, rock temperature increases monotonically and nonlinearly with borehole depth, and the roadway thermal influence radius is approximately 18 m. Grey model predictions exhibit residuals below 0. 63, relative errors within 3%, posterior deviation c values below 0. 35, the small-error probability p values equal 1, indicating excellent(Grade I) prediction accuracy. Ridge regression results align closely with measured values across all depths, showing only slight deviations in shallow zones. This study provides reliable data support for understanding deep rock temperature distribution and mitigating hightemperature hazards in deep mining environments.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13937/j.cnki.hbdzdxxb.2026.01.008
中图分类号:TD727.2
引用信息:
[1]苏晓波,常俊松.灰色模型和岭回归模型在金属矿山深部原岩温度预测中的应用[J].河北地质大学学报,2026,49(01):69-74.DOI:10.13937/j.cnki.hbdzdxxb.2026.01.008.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC2907201)
2025-12-09
2025-12-09
2025-12-09